Wednesday, October 6, 2010


Been absolutely killing it lately.  Haven't had a negative day for weeks.  As of today, I'm looking for further strength out of my ABK and PMI longs (ABK is more likely to squeeze more quickly) while I'm short MBI.  Last time I checked, the CDSs on PMI were cheaper than on MBI, so credit guys think PMI is lower risk than MBI, yet MBI has been the only strong one the last few months.

Refining margins are taking off, so VLO is the best of breed as seeming very inexpensive fundamentally, but I'd like to see it above 22 before I really lay into the long.  Could be a good entry above 17.50-17.60 area, too, if you want to risk a lot less to get in earlier.