Supposedly Uralkali insiders dumped their stock holdings w/ the intent of pulling out of the potash cartel. http://rt.com/business/head-uralkali-detained-belarus-belaruskali-004/. Since insider trading isn't illegal in Russia, as long as you party in the same places Putin does, and since it makes no sense for either party to break up a cartel long-term, I believe the analyst cited in the article more or less hits the nail on the head when he writes: “If the share prices of potash companies are plummeting, this makes it easier for Russians to take over Belarusian producers,” said Forbrig, a senior program officer at the US German Marshall Fund in Berlin, told Bloomberg.
I'm not sure if the intent is to buyout a Belarusian producer, but you sure can buy back your shares at much cheaper, then make a fresh deal w/ the Belarusians.
Looking at the chart of Uralkali, you can plainly see that the stock sold off hard a week before the breakup of the cartel was announced, so I like that the price action confirms the story. Now I'm just looking for evidence that insiders have/are buying back again at lower prices. I got confirmation today w/ an upside breakout in Uralkali, so I'm buying up POT and IPI in hopes that a renewed deal is made soon. I'm just playing the chart and I don't mean to risk more than below support areas in the stocks.