Wednesday, October 3, 2012

RBOB gasoline

The spot price of gasoline in NY has been sky-high lately.  For this reason, I'm long a bunch of Nov futures at this time, hedged w/ a short in WTI crude.  A seasonal drop in gasoline spot prices this time of year isn't enough to eliminate the large backwardation that is the wind behind my back.

Today petrol inventories were released, which showed a drop for crude and build for gasoline, which temporarily took prices against me.  By the end of the day, the spread totally reversed and put me at slightly green.  It gives me confidence that the unfavorable move was news-induced.

With the election approaching, Obama may start freaking out if gasoline prices spike.  The first thing I would see him doing is releasing more of the SPR crude inventory, which would only be indirectly bearish for gasoline, but more bearish for WTI, so I feel safe in this trade were this to occur.