Friday, November 9, 2012
If history is any guide for disagreements like this fiscal cliff, nothing will get done until the last 24 hours, then agreements will almost certainly be made before the deadline, or else an agreement will be made to delay the cliff until an agreement is made later. So to the extent the market is worried about it, the market willl generally sell off for 2 mo, then gap up on deadline success. However, I'm not sure whether the market will be very worried about it. I made keep a bearish bias until the deadline nears, however.