WTI vs. Brent blowing out

I've been getting killed on the front-month arb, along w/ everyone else, and I suspect there may be a fund or two in the same trade as me that are going down in flames and may have already liquidated or may need to do so soon.  However, the other legs of my trade as described in my earlier post http://uptrendingequity.blogspot.com/2011/01/vlo-and-refining-margins.html have been keeping me in the game. Arbs can be a pain in the butt, and anything can happen in commodities, so I'll daytrade oil in special circumstances and look for signs that reversion on the front-months is likely, like soon after any news of a fund blowing out on this trade, or other outstanding technical setups